10 Day Tune Up for H1N1 – Day 1: Influenza Update

6,000 Deaths? 90,000 Deaths? It’s really difficult to know exactly what will happen during the upcoming influenza season here in North America. Here’s what we do know.

photo credit: Beijing-China

H1N1 Swine Flu in Perspective

While the World Health Organization estimates that nearly 2-billion people could catch H1N1 influenza before the pandemic technically ends, it is worth noting that only 36,000 people die each year from seasonal influenza in the United States. Only 302 people have died in the United States since the virus was first diagnosed here last April.

Google FluTrend

As you can see from Google FluTrend map, influenza cases in the United States appear to be following an historic path for this time of year. Most of the early cases in August were in the Deep South, specifically Alabama where influenza has his university students particularly hard. None of these early cases are confirmed to be the H1N1 strain.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) maintains a weekly epidemiology report on influenza in the United States, and despite its technical nature, it is the best authority on seasonal flu.

American Preparations to Date

The CDC has yet to decide whether or not there will be a nationwide vaccination program similar to the one against polio in the 1950′s. Considering the fact that Wal-Mart and other national pharmacies are working with the government to distribute vaccine this season, I seriously doubt a polio-style program is in the works.

Most public health planners expect influenza vaccines in two phases:

• Phase One will be the traditional trivalent vaccine Americans receive every year.
• Phase Two will be a vaccine specifically for H1N1 influenza.

The Phase Two vaccination plan most likely won’t happen until mid-October, according to the CDC. This, despite efforts by the Obama Administration to rush production of the yet-to-be approved vaccine. The drugs remain in the trial phase (as of September 2, 2009), and appear to require two shots timed ten days apart for maximum effectiveness. Yes, this means Americans should expect three shots to cover all of the possibilities for influenza this year.

One drug maker, Swiss-based Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS), is touting a vaccine it claims can be effective in a single dose.  However, its drug still has a two dose regimen.

Today’s To-Do: Read CDC Guidance for Businesses and Employers

The CDC published guidance for non-healthcare businesses and employers on how to decrease the spread of seasonal fly and H1N1 flu in the workplace. They also address business continuity planning for the upcoming flu season.

Today’s To-Do is to read that document. It will provide you with preparedness recommendations, an action list, as well as offer advice about incorporating influenza pandemic components into your continuity plan if you have not already.

Link: Guidance for Businesses and Employers To Plan and Respond to the 2009-2010 Influenza Season.

Here are other articles I have written on this topic:

• 10 Day Tune Up for H1N1 – Day 4: Notify Stakeholders
• 10 Day Tune Up for H1N1 – Day 2: Your Message
• Writing a Strategic Communications Plan: Evaluation
• Why You Should Be Proactive with Bad News
• Three Things People Want to Know in a Crisis
• New Campaign for Will County Health Department
• 10 Day Tune Up for H1N1 – Day 7: Social Media Checklist
• 10 Day Tune Up for H1N1 – Day 5: Test Your Call Tree
• Writing a Strategic Communications Plan: Key Messages
• What Twitter’s DoS Attack Can Teach Us